Session 4 - Drivers of world change

Session 4 – Drivers of world change

Today, a very interesting yet fundamental concept was introduced to us, the difference between evolutionary change and revolutionary or disruptive change. I particularly appreciated this concept because it helps me to understand better what change is and put more effort into understanding the difference between changes.

In conjunction with last week’s idea of valley, summit and cloud, I believe majority of these revolutionary changes are found in the cloud and summit, especially when an idea from cloud evolves into a summit. While disruptive changes bring about huge opportunities, it also means it is becoming harder to maintain one’s lead with the game is changing ever so quickly, making you obsolete as quickly as you become successful. 

Ever since humans existed, the pace of these disruptive changes has been ever accelerating. Today, information technology seems to have the most rapid pace of such disruptive change. Just years ago, desktop with internet totally revolutionize the way we do things, from paper to electronic.  We thought Microsoft was invincible. Now, desktop are becoming obsolete and Microsoft’s worth dived from US$600b to US$200b. Just few years ago, Nintendo widen the lead against Xbox and PS3 with their amazing motion-sensing wii and touch-screen DS. Today, iPhone threatens to make Nintendo’s latest 3DS totally obsolete as soon as it was launched. Cheap, high quality iPhone games totally re-shaped the entire consumer mind-set. We don’t see any reason why we should still pay $60 dollars anymore. While we all understood the idea that Apple is overtaking many companies out there, the definition of disruptive change helped me to fully understand why. 

Thus, with this knowledge in mind, what we should look out for in future when we study any change is whether this change will cause an irreversible change in consumers’ and public’s expectations. If it does, we better pay double the attention to it. IT industry has been developing very rapidly and will continue to do so but it may not be the sole cause of attention in near future. With the uprising of developing countries and Middle East, this is a disruptive change. Demand for oil is going up, making oil a commodity even more precious than gold. While we all believe China is going to be the next rising star, China has a big missing link. It does not have many natural resources despite its vast land. Accelerating inflation, especially due to raw resources can be potentially a very disruptive change. It might either shift all the power to resources rich countries or force a jump in alternative energy resources, causing many countries to become obsolete.  We, a country without natural resources can too suffer or capitalize on it. It pays to manage change well indeed. 

Hopefully, with the theories we learn in second part of the seminar, what is leadership and how corporate leadership management are changing now will help us in future. Old, regimental army management no longer works in the new industries; leaders not just have to lead but balance between defining a purpose for his team and treating them as an equal. Rather, I need to learn how to apply them into my daily life now.