TWC Session 2 - Is the world facing a fundamental change?

Technology and world change session 2   

During the 2^nd session of Technology and world change, there was yet another interesting question worth discussing. Is the world facing fundamental change? Let us pay some attention to the key word here - fundamental. Fundamental means forming the base, from which everything else develops; more important than anything else (http://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/british/fundamental?q=fundamental). As some had mentioned, the world is constantly changing. However, fundamental changes are not just more substantial changes but they literally change the principles and the models that we rely on today to make forecast and decisions.

One such change is the change in political system worldwide today. Political system forms the fundamental for the country and the economy of the country. Soviet Union is a perfect example where a political system that crumbled on its own weight, where responsibility was too overwhelming for the central government to sustain. China too, adopting a close door measure due to communism also suffered decades of low or negative growth within the country. Upon opening its doors now to the global economy, China has been experiencing double digits growth, growth that no developed countries have been able to achieve for just as many decades.

Today, most of us will agree that communism is a failed political system and the West gloat over their victory of democracy. Democracy to them is as good as a holy scripture but is it really? Lee Kuan Yew, the iconic figure who brought Singapore to success, despite British educated, till today he rejects total democracy to the extent that he finds it ridiculous. 45 years ago, the Americans found him ridiculous. How about today? Today Americans find their leaders a ridiculous. The debt impasses in August made the entire America literally a living joke. China was totally disgusted by the political system the United States tried to impose on them. Now we see the great foresight of our founder. The world may be nonchalant about US being downgraded from AAA to AA+ but will they be if Singapore was the one instead? 

 U.S is stuck in a gridlock, unable to maneuver freely with its political state because of the grand battle between The Republicans and The Democrats. To make up for the debt shortfall, the government chose to cut their budget from education, which takes 14% of the total expenditure of US rather than say 16% spent on pension or 11% spent on welfare. Schools are closing down, teachers are getting laid off and spending on technology is being cut (http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Education/2010/0420/School-budget-cuts-across-the-US-projected-for-next-academic-year). So there goes the future of U.S. So what if these young children do not have voting right? They are the ones who might be the next Steve Jobs, not the 80 years old who are paid thousands monthly for pensions or medical subsidy. This may sound cruel but it’s the hard truth. And this is precisely the problem of democracy, the kids are deemed by the adults immature of making a major decision of voting, fine that sounds sensible. But it is also certainly more sensible to pacify those left with a few months more to the coffin but holding the trump card to their career. Sure, it makes total sense to rob the children of their books to buy a rocking chair for the elders in exchange for another 4 years’ worth of office. 

Now, are we still so sure that democracy is the perfect system? Keep democracy, US is a falling star. Change the political system and it will whip a storm throughout the entire world, well perhaps China will be grinning. Whatever it is, political system is the fundamental of the fundamentals. Is the world facing a fundamental change?

TWC Session 1

Technology and world change

During the 1st session of Technology and world change, the question posted by the New Guinean "why the white man has so much cargo and we have so little?" truly caught my attention. Thus, this post will revolve around the discussion of this question posted by this indignant New Guinean. 

Professor Diamond, the author of Guns, Germs and Steel theory was that Eurasian civilization is not so much of product of superior intelligence but a chain of developments, each made possible by certain preconditions. Eurasia had the best collection of plants and animals for domestication as compared to Native Americans. This led to Eurasia being able to produces greater surplus of food, allowing division of labour possible and these non-farming specialists created rapid technology progress. More details of his argument can be found on http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgnmT-Y_rGQ

On top of Professor Diamond’s theory, Professor Gurinder Shahi brought up an extremely insightful point - writings. Although majority will find Professor Diamond’s theory agreeable, it is not complete. Perhaps, writing may be another crucial key to answering why there was such a disparity in growth among different race and parts of the world.

Writings have always been the very foundation of a civilisation and nearly all powerful empires we know since history. Rome had their famous Roman alphabet, Chinese had their long lasting Chinese characters and Egyptians, the greatest African state that ever existed during that era had their own unique language. The importance of writings is undeniable.

On the other hand, tribal songs and dance used very commonly by African tribes and New Guineans not only limit the amount of knowledge that can be passed down, they also depend very much on the intellectual capability of the recipient. Not every generation is made equal, thus the peak and troughs of every civilisation when a great leader or a poor leader takes over the rein. Tribal songs and dance are often created with great wisdom within them, just like modern literature and plays, they hold a much deeper meaning and understanding of our world than it appears to be. All these, however, can easily be lost through just one incompetent generation who are incapable of capturing the wisdom within these ancient literatures. Eventually, crucial part of these literature are lost in time and when these wisdom are lost, the civilisation is set back decades, let alone being able expand on them. On the contrary, writings can be passed down from generations to generation, easily ignoring the intellectual capability, preserving the knowledge even centuries after the author died. Sun tzu art of war is a living example, written during 5^th century BC but still interpreted and expanded upon today, still applied in corporate world today, such as Art of war in corporate politics. Of course, the bibles from various religions are needless to say, source of wisdom from prophets or sages thousands of years ago yet still very much alive today. Only with these sophisticated writings in place, a civilisation can thrive on knowledge and technology, generations after generations.

Africans in general since history has always placed more on emphasis on oral culture and tradition as opposed to powerful civilisation such Egypt. This lack of sophisticated writings in the Africa and New Guinea is actually a very telling sign - a lack of desire to understand our cosmic world we live in. If they ever had the desire, then they probably lack the desire to pass down such knowledge for if they had, they will have adopted or created records, just like how every noble civilisation did.

This very lack of desire could possibly be the key why certain groups of people were left behind when the world changes and the technology advances. Great empires since history have been created by massive conquest, the desire, or rather greed for more land and power. Greed has its advantages at some point of life. Indigenous New Guineans are relatively contented with life, at least before the intervention of the Western influence. Their weapons are made specifically to suit the needs of hunting down animals rather than for conquest and war, even up to today where the entire world is building nuclear and planes. Their lifestyles since history revolves greatly around hunting for suffice food for the next day whereas the rest of the world is chopping off heads of each other for the sake of planting a stake.

This lack of desire for power probably explains why they have minimal conquest and great wars since history as compared to every other civilisation, so much so that they actually sound more civilised than the rest of the world. In fact, Africa although being the 2^nd biggest continent in the world, they are often more of a victim of invasion rather than being an aggressor. Despite having much of the valuable resources of the world, they never once did seize the opportunity to seize power in the world, even among themselves. Even today when oil is a key driver of economy, Africa was excluded from BRIC as key emerging economies although it holds 9% of the oil reserves and potentially much more undiscovered reserves.

Their lack of greed created peace among them, created a sense of belonging and homogenising with the Nature. However, it comes with yet another heavy price; slavery. Upon the arrival of Europeans, superior in their technology and of course greed, the Africans could only play the subordinate role. With all the changes that occurred, these tribal people had never been able to lead these changes, never been able to stay ahead of them. Thus, they never stood a chance against people who have initiated these revolutions or capitalised on it. Subordinates to those who maximised their own benefits from these improvement in weaponry, agriculture and craftsmanship, the Africans and New Guineans was deem as an inferior class and naturally to them, the “inferior” deserves less “cargo”.

The world is still constantly full of changes, more so now than ever. Even changes themselves are evolving constantly. While many of us today know the importance of anticipating changes, positioning ourselves with the changes to seize opportunities, it is not sufficient anymore. Perhaps a wise man might be able to anticipate changes and its possible evolution but the average us, equipped with only an inexperienced and ignorant minds are unlikely to, for even the smartest corporate and world leaders can often be caught unprepared by sudden changes. Just like how Nintendo 3DS had to slash its price by 40% to improve sales just few months back, Nintendo is struggling to maintain its market share, faced with competitions from iPhone and Facebook, competitors that never existed a decade back. Nintendo 3DS is arguably said to be positioning itself in line with the growing trend of 3D, hoping to capitalise on that trend. Yet the trend seems to have reversed itself in popularity, making developing 3DS look like a bad decision by Nintendo.

Nintendo being a powerful company has the chance to undo its mistakes and start afresh but we, as a feeble individual might not.
Thus, developing the ability to constantly anticipate changes and at the same time, also stay reactive is important. Otherwise, we might just be enslaved by changes, just like the Africans.

*The above expressed are purely opinions of the author.